Maybank IB: CPO Prices Seen At RM4,500–RM5,000 In 1Q 2025

KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 2 (Bernama) -- Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB) expects crude palm oil (CPO) average selling prices (ASP) to range between RM4,500 and RM5,000 per tonne in the first quarter of 2025 (1Q 2025).

In a note today, Maybank IB expressed optimism about CPO prices in 1Q 2025, citing strong demand driven by the early Chinese New Year (CNY) at the end of January 2025 and the onset of Ramadan in March. 

These events are expected to coincide with the sector’s typical low-output cycle for the quarter.

“The presence of a potentially mild La Niña raises concerns that excessive rainfall could further disrupt supplies,” it stated.

Despite this, the investment bank maintained a ‘neutral’ call on the sector, advocating a short-term trading strategy for 1Q 2025.

Year-to-date (y-t-d), CPO spot prices have fluctuated significantly, trading as low as RM3,629 per tonne on Jan 3, 2024, and reaching a high of RM5,327 per tonne on Dec 5, 2024, marking a wide range of RM1,700 per tonne.

“CPO prices hit new y-t-d highs over the past two months due to current supply tightness and expectations of further tightening during the October 2024 to September 2025 marketing year. 

“This was partly driven by enthusiasm over Indonesia’s B40 biodiesel mandate. Prices were also supported by anticipated near-term resilient demand ahead of CNY and Ramadan in 1Q 2025,” it noted.

The bank added that CPO prices in 2024 were volatile, primarily due to supply shocks stemming from unexpectedly low output in Indonesia during the first nine months of the year.

This was attributed to biological tree stress and the lagged effects of the mild El Niño in 2023, which had impacted estates south of the equator.

-- BERNAMA